As we enter the heart of winter, a snowstorm is quickly approaching, with the potential to intensify towards the end of this weekend. Furthermore, the polar vortex is also set to pay us a visit. We have been closely monitoring this situation for a few days, and over the past 24 hours, it has gained significant momentum, with almost every weather model supporting its occurrence.
Snow is expected to start falling on Sunday morning, moving from the southwest to the northeast. It will continue throughout the day and gradually taper off Sunday evening in the same direction.
With just three days left before the storm hits, the big question on everyone’s mind is how intense it will be. While some forecasts indicate a relatively mild storm with moderate snowfall in Southeast PA, other models are predicting significant snowfall across most of Pennsylvania, with possible mixing issues near Philadelphia. Given the unpredictable nature of this year’s weather patterns, it’s anyone’s guess as to what we can expect.
After a short period of warm weather, we can expect a storm to move northeast up the coast. Unlike the previous storm that narrowly missed us to the south, there won’t be any suppression from the north this time. As a result, the storm is expected to bring around 10″ of snow, as there is no Greenland block to slow it down.
The areas with the highest confidence for snowfall are expected to be located east of the I-81 corridor, covering most of Eastern PA and South Central PA. However, as you move further west, there is still some uncertainty regarding the amount of snowfall. Now, let’s delve into the different scenarios that could unfold.
SCENARIO MAP #3: 20% CHANCE
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In this scenario, there is a minimal likelihood of it happening. It depicts a mild storm that remains slightly offshore. The majority of snowfall would be concentrated in Southeast PA, while lighter snow would extend northwest across South Central PA to the Coal Region and Poconos.
As of 5 PM Thursday, the European model continues to support this scenario, although it is losing support from other models. It is important to note that the European AI model is more amplified. Although this outcome remains a possibility, it is considered unlikely.
SCENARIO MAP #2: 35% CHANCE
The scenario described here presents a contrasting outcome to the one we previously discussed. This outcome is supported by the Canadian, German, and UK models. Although these models are considered to be moderately accurate, the Canadian model has shown particular success in recent times.
A low-pressure system moving along the coast would result in significant snowfall just northwest of I-95, extending towards the I-81 corridor and beyond. The Pittsburgh Metro area and the Allegheny Plateau in Northern PA would also experience moderate snow accumulations.
This scenario currently holds the most momentum, indicating that more and more guidance is leaning towards this direction. However, it lacks support from the statistically most accurate European model, which prevents us from ranking it as the top choice.
SCENARIO MAP #1: 45% CHANCE
In the most likely scenario, which falls in the middle ground, there is a low pressure system that remains off the coast and is slightly weaker. This would result in heavy snowfall being confined to a small area near the I-95 corridor. Currently, it is anticipated that this would primarily affect Southeast PA.
Areas near I-81 can expect to receive moderate amounts of snowfall, while lighter accumulations are forecasted for regions northwest of this area, including Pittsburgh, State College, and Williamsport.
By Friday evening, we will provide a more comprehensive Snowfall Forecast in our First Call. At present, we suggest that individuals residing in the moderate and heavy areas of Scenario #1 prepare their shovels and ensure their snow blowers are in working condition. It’s worth noting that not many people in Southeast PA still possess a snow blower.
