While violent thunderstorms are common in late spring, AccuWeather meteorologists warn of a major increase in severe weather this week. This could result in an increased danger of tornadoes in parts of the Ohio, Tennessee, and mid-Mississippi valleys by Friday afternoon and evening. This development occurs during what is already being dubbed the worst tornado season in almost a decade.
Dan DePodwin, AccuWeather’s Senior Director of Forecasting Operations, underscored meteorologists’ growing worry. “There is increasing concern among our meteorologists that Thursday and Friday are very active severe weather days, at least in terms of damaging winds and the potential for tornadoes,” he told me.
Despite a recent break in extreme activity, DePodwin warned residents in potentially impacted areas not to become complacent. “Even though severe thunderstorms have been relatively sparse lately, we advise people in alerted areas to not let their guard down,” the meteorologist said. “We are quickly approaching the peak of severe weather season, and there will be numerous opportunities for severe thunderstorms through at least the middle of next week.”
The upcoming rise in severe weather is being blamed on a Pacific storm that is expected to interrupt an early-season heat wave in the northern Plains. According to AccuWeather Senior Storm Warning Meteorologist Eddie Walker, the initial phase of this weather system will deliver strong wind gusts and hail across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through Wednesday night. Importantly, large volumes of dry air are likely to reduce the immediate hazard of tornadoes in these areas.
However, the scenario is expected to alter when the storm system moves southeast into a moister atmosphere. By Thursday afternoon and evening, any type of severe weather, including high winds, hail, flash flooding, and tornadoes, will be probable. “Thursday evening will bring vigorous activity in eastern Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, and northern Indiana, moving east into Ohio during the overnight hours,” Walker stated to reporters.
The tornado threat is anticipated to worsen on Friday, with AccuWeather meteorologists upping the warning level to high for sections of the Ohio Valley. DePodwin emphasized the link between heat and severe weather, saying, “We always look at the edge or rim of heat, in this case record heat, to see where severe thunderstorms can erupt.” On Friday, the setup could cause a swath of damaging winds and tornadoes.
From Friday afternoon to Friday night, a very catastrophic situation could unfold in a region spanning the central Mississippi Valley, much of the Ohio Valley, and a portion of the Tennessee Valley. “Friday will be a moderate- to high-risk day for at least several tornadoes, even some of long duration,” according to Walker.
Long-duration tornadoes frequently have tremendous strength, with EF2 intensity or greater. Meteorologists are concerned that if the situation worsens, numerous severe, long-track tornadoes will strike, some of which may linger until midnight.
The severe weather threat is expected to spread eastward into the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday night.
Walker said, “On Saturday, additional development of severe thunderstorms will occur along a cold front draped from the southern Plains eastward to the Carolinas.” This might result in severe thunderstorms across the Interstate 95 mid-Atlantic region for a portion of the day.
Walker added, “Then the severe weather may reset back into the central Plains states on Sunday.” Forecasts indicate that another outbreak of severe weather, including tornadoes, will form over the Plains and gradually travel eastward next week.
