As the previous president gained support from the crucial voting demographic, President-elect Trump’s performance among Latino and Hispanic voters provided one of the best opportunities for Republicans on Election Day.
Trump seems to gain popularity among the group despite the criticism he received for an event in which a comic made racist remarks against Puerto Rico and Latinos. Osceola County in Central Florida, which has a large Puerto Rican population, was just over a point in favor of Trump. By contrast, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton carried the county by about 25 points in 2016 and President Biden by almost 14 points in 2020.
In Arizona, where ballots are still being counted, the former president seems to be outperforming his 2020 showing in the counties of Yuma and Santa Cruz, both of which have sizable Hispanic populations.
President Biden outperformed Trump among Latino voters in 2020, receiving 65 percent of the vote compared to Trump’s 32 percent, while Vice President Harris won the group 52 percent to 46 percent, according to a CNN exit poll.
Most significantly, Trump defeated Harris by 12 points this cycle, the largest swing of 35 points since Biden defeated Harris by 23 points in 2020 for the Latino men’s vote. Furthermore, although Harris easily defeated Trump by 22 points among Latina women, this is a far cry from Biden’s 39-point advantage among the same group just four years prior.
Danielle Alvarez, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, stated, “President Donald J. Trump received historic support from Hispanic voters because he has never wavered on the issues that matter most to our community: bringing down costs, restoring the economy, restoring American prosperity, securing the border, and safety at home and abroad.” It’s time to get to work and deliver for the American people, as President Trump stated in his victory address.
For several years, Democrats have seen warning indications that parts of the Latino voting bloc were shifting to the Republican Party. The GOP gained support from the Florida voting group in 2022, especially from the Puerto Rican and Cuban minorities. Among the Latino voters in the state, Governor Ron DeSantis (R) received 58 percent of the vote, including 56 percent from Puerto Ricans and 68 percent from Cuban Americans.
Additionally, Trump was receiving encouraging results from Latino voters in the polls leading up to the 2024 election, especially among young Latino men.
Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who focuses on Latino voting patterns and behavior, stated, “It’s more widespread than the isolated, young Latino male, although it’s particularly pronounced there.”
He asserted that “you can’t flip Osceola County with just young, Hispanic men.”
According to Madrid, the notable change in Latino voter turnout is a result of a “longer-term, generational trajectory.”
According to him, “it’s the rise of a new voter type, which is a nonwhite, working-class populist voter.”
Republicans contend that the swing shows a shift toward the GOP on topics like immigration and the economy, as much as a rejection of Democratic programs.
One Republican strategist stated, “If you go to South Texas, for example, and you go into those communities, there actually has been a long-standing concern about the flow of illegal immigrants because that’s into their communities.” He also noted that Latinos have also demonstrated a tendency to lean to the right on issues such as abortion and school choice.
75 percent of Hispanic Americans described the surge in migrants crossing the southern border as a “major problem or crisis,” and 74 percent expressed disapproval of the government’s response to the issue, according to a Pew Research Center survey published in March. Additionally, according to the study, 51% of respondents believed that the president and Congress should give the southern border their highest priority.
“The trend has existed, and fortunately for Republicans, Democrats have not acknowledged it throughout history, and they have, to be honest, treated the majority of minorities in their party in the same way,” the strategist stated. “In Arizona, Texas, or fill-in-the-blank, they treated Hispanic voters the same way they treated Black voters.”
“That isn’t a partnership. That is a sign of indolence and a disregard for others.
It’s even easier, according to DJ Quinlan, a former executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party: Hispanic and Latino voters are affected by the same trends as other important voting blocs.
According to Quinlan, “it’s a big mistake to focus on telling the story of Donald Trump winning as the story of more Latinos voting for him and not looking at the overall broad social trend that’s happening.” “There was a general movement, and I will say that economic anxiety and disinformation are the main causes of it.”
“As a Latino myself, I am concerned that many of the policies that the Trump administration appears to be leaning toward—for example, repealing the [Affordable Care Act] and, of course, mass deportation—will disproportionately affect Latinos.”
After Trump’s large event at Madison Square Garden in New York late last month, during which comic Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” and made a nasty joke about Latinos and procreation, many thought his relationship with the Latino community was in jeopardy. Sen. Rick Scott (Fla.) and other Republicans swiftly denounced the comments, and Trump and his team separated from Hinchcliffe.
The Harris campaign used the scandal to broaden its already-existing outreach to Latino voters. However, the voting bloc did not seem to be significantly impacted by the dispute in the end.
“I find what happened with Latino voters gobsmacking on a national level,” Trump fundraiser Dan Eberhart remarked. It is, in my opinion, a fundamental shift in American politics that may go beyond this election.
